92.5 to be exact. That was the over/under placed on Vancouver Canucks winger Brock Boeser over the life of his new three year deal by Jeff Paterson of the Rink Wide Podcast in a poll question Monday. A fun one, and a realistic number.
Barring major injury, as in presuming it won’t get any worse than it was this past season for Boeser with a couple of nagging moments early and late, his productivity should be right in that ball park, if not better.
We’ll also presume that the “Lotto Line” is a thing of the past, with Elias Pettersson and JT Miller as the pivot men on the top two lines as opposed to ‘Petey’ centering Miller and Boeser. Of course in times of slumps or team struggles, any line combination is possible for at least the short term, but in the perfect Vancouver Canucks world, both Pettersson and Miller are cranking on their own in the middle.
The Lotto Line actually saw time together at the start of this past season but the results were forgettable. Understandable given that all three men had lingering injury issues back in October.
Who wing-man Boeser sticks with obviously remains to be seen, but either centre could be the right choice, especially with Petey presumably starting the season healthy and on his game. Special teams alignments will factor in, as will centre Bo Horvat’s play. Line predicting in July is for fun because so much can change before and after the puck drops.
Let’s say for the sake of this argument that Boeser plays an average of 72 games each season and needs to score 31 goals per year to reach the ‘over’. That’s one goal every seven periods that Boeser would need to light the lamp. Another way of looking at it, that’s .43 goals per game.
In his five ‘full’ seasons with the Vancouver Canucks, rounding up or down a decimal spot, Brock Boeser’s goals per game each season have been .47, .38, .28, .41, and .32. The last one comes in a year when distractions, the health of his dad back in Minnesota, outweighed any injuries.
He falls short based on those numbers, but one must factor in the fact that Boeser will start with a fresh contract under head coach Bruce Boudreau for a full season. It’s not simply a matter of being optimistic, he now has that, it’s a matter of Boeser being in a situation that provides him the greatest opportunities to reach his peak performance.